ObservatoryAggie Geopolitics Club
Live risk globe · 4 chokepoints instrumented

AGGIE GEOPOLITICS CLUB

PLOTTING TERRITORIES…
1
Tripwire firing
Layer17 AUG 2026
Overlays
Risk tier
MinimalCritical

Faint territories are low-confidence calls. Clarity is confidence.

A student-run political-risk desk at Texas A&M. Our analysts publish country assessments and score every call against the outcome using a Brier scoring method. 9 territories live, 42 forecasts resolved, club Brier 0.10.

Read the reports See the track record
THE BOARD

The watch list

All reports →

The club

The Aggie Geopolitics Club is a student-run political-risk desk at Texas A&M University. We organize into regional desks and publish assessments the way an intelligence shop would — bottom line first, sourced by tier, each carrying a falsifiable forecast with a date. Then we grade ourselves against what actually happens. The aim isn’t to sound authoritative; it’s to be calibrated, and to keep the record in public — misses included.

5
Regional desks
6
Analysts
11
Published assessments
42
Forecasts scored
Regional desks

Latest briefs

KOR · INDO-PACIFICGuarded

Korean Peninsula: provocation cadence stays inside the deterrence band

Expect the familiar cycle of tests and exercises without a deliberate crossing of the deterrence threshold. The system is stable-but-tense; the base rate strongly favors continuity.

By Hana Suzuki15 Jul 2026
PHL · INDO-PACIFICElevated

South China Sea: resupply standoffs stay sub-lethal but trend up in frequency

Water-cannon and ramming incidents around Second Thomas Shoal continue and grow more frequent, but a deliberate lethal escalation remains unlikely because both capitals still want the incidents deniable.

By Hana Suzuki13 Jul 2026
UKR · EURASIACritical

Ukraine: the grid, not the front line, is the decisive winter target

Expect a concentrated strike campaign on transmission — substations and autotransformers, not just generation — timed to the first sustained freeze. Repair stock, not air defense alone, is the binding constraint.

By Sofia Marchetti11 Jul 2026
ARM · EURASIAElevated

South Caucasus: the transit-corridor dispute is the live fault line

The unresolved sovereignty terms of a Syunik transit corridor are the most likely trigger for renewed limited clashes — not a full war, but sub-brigade actions tied to negotiation leverage.

By Sofia Marchetti9 Jul 2026