The globeAMERICAS · VEN
Venezuela
Standing at elevated. One or more drivers escalating; watch armed. 1 report on file; updated 4 Aug 2026.
PoliticalEconomic
The call over time
- 3 Jul 2026ElevatedVenezuela: managed consolidation drives a renewed migration wave
Post-election consolidation without meaningful liberalization is the base case. The near-term regional risk is a renewed outward migration wave straining Colombian and Brazilian border capacity.
TOMÁS REYES
Open forecasts
60%
Desk
Net monthly outflow from Venezuela rises above its 2025 average in at least two months before 2027-01-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Jan 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
60%
Desk
Net monthly outflow from Venezuela rises above its 2025 average in at least two months before 2027-01-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Jan 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
60%
Desk
Net monthly outflow from Venezuela rises above its 2025 average in at least two months before 2027-01-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Jan 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
Indicators on the board
- ElevatedRegistration backlog at Cúcuta exceeds three weeks
- ArmedMonthly outflow exceeds trailing-year mean by 40%
- ElevatedRegistration backlog at Cúcuta exceeds three weeks
- ArmedMonthly outflow exceeds trailing-year mean by 40%
- ElevatedRegistration backlog at Cúcuta exceeds three weeks
- ArmedMonthly outflow exceeds trailing-year mean by 40%