The publication

Reports

11 published assessments across 5 regions. Each one leads with its bottom line, states its sourcing tier, and carries at least one forecast we will resolve in public.

KOR · INDO-PACIFICGuarded

Korean Peninsula: provocation cadence stays inside the deterrence band

Expect the familiar cycle of tests and exercises without a deliberate crossing of the deterrence threshold. The system is stable-but-tense; the base rate strongly favors continuity.

By Hana Suzuki15 Jul 2026

PHL · INDO-PACIFICElevated

South China Sea: resupply standoffs stay sub-lethal but trend up in frequency

Water-cannon and ramming incidents around Second Thomas Shoal continue and grow more frequent, but a deliberate lethal escalation remains unlikely because both capitals still want the incidents deniable.

By Hana Suzuki13 Jul 2026

UKR · EURASIACritical

Ukraine: the grid, not the front line, is the decisive winter target

Expect a concentrated strike campaign on transmission — substations and autotransformers, not just generation — timed to the first sustained freeze. Repair stock, not air defense alone, is the binding constraint.

By Sofia Marchetti11 Jul 2026

ARM · EURASIAElevated

South Caucasus: the transit-corridor dispute is the live fault line

The unresolved sovereignty terms of a Syunik transit corridor are the most likely trigger for renewed limited clashes — not a full war, but sub-brigade actions tied to negotiation leverage.

By Sofia Marchetti9 Jul 2026

SDN · SUB-SAHARAN AFRICACritical

Sudan: RSF consolidation in Darfur hardens into a de facto partition

The war is settling into a territorial split around the Kordofan line rather than resolving. A negotiated ceasefire is less likely than a frozen front with parallel administrations — which is worse for civilians and harder to reverse.

By Daniel Okonkwo6 Jul 2026

VEN · AMERICASElevated

Venezuela: managed consolidation drives a renewed migration wave

Post-election consolidation without meaningful liberalization is the base case. The near-term regional risk is a renewed outward migration wave straining Colombian and Brazilian border capacity.

By Tomás Reyes3 Jul 2026

TWN · INDO-PACIFICSevere

Taiwan Strait: a customs quarantine is the likelier coercion than a blockade

A PRC-declared 'customs inspection zone' short of a declared blockade is the most probable coercive move in the next two quarters. It stresses Taipei and allied resolve while staying below the threshold that forces a US military response.

By Hana Suzuki2 Jul 2026

MLI · SUB-SAHARAN AFRICASevere

Mali: private-military dependence deepens as the security economy inverts

State reliance on foreign contract forces is now structural, not tactical. It buys short-term regime security at the cost of long-term insurgent recruitment, and the trade is worsening.

By Daniel Okonkwo29 Jun 2026

IRN · MENASevere

Iran: enrichment expansion is a bargaining signal, not a breakout

Expanded enrichment and reduced inspector access read as leverage-building ahead of talks, not a decision to weaponize. The tell would be a move at declared sites going dark simultaneously — that has not happened.

By Marcus Vale22 Jun 2026

TWN · INDO-PACIFICSevere

Taiwan: median-line crossings normalize a higher floor

Sustained median-line crossings have reset the baseline — what read as escalation in 2023 is now the floor. We step the assessment up a tier: each incursion now begins from a more forward posture, compressing warning time. Intent still reads as pressure, not preparation.

By Hana Suzuki14 Jun 2026

TWN · INDO-PACIFICElevated

Taiwan Strait: PLA pressure is a routine, not a run-up

The tempo of PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan is high but stable. We read the current pattern as a normalized coercion baseline rather than the opening of an escalation. The drivers worth watching are administrative and economic, not kinetic.

By Hana Suzuki12 May 2026