Calibration, in public

The track record

A forecast that never resolves is an opinion. Here every call carries a number and a deadline, and we score it against what happened. The misses stay on the board — that is the whole point.

42
Forecasts resolved
27/42
Hits
0.09
Club Brier
lower is better

The diagonal is perfect calibration: when the club says 70%, it should happen 70% of the time. Points above the line mean we were too cautious; below, too confident. Marker size is the number of calls in that band.

00252550507575100100STATED PROBABILITYOBSERVED HIT RATE

By analyst

AnalystResolvedHit rateBrier
Hana Suzuki@hsuzuki1275%0.04
Sofia Marchetti@smarchetti967%0.08
Daniel Okonkwo@dokonkwo650%0.09
Marcus Vale@mvale967%0.13
Tomás Reyes@treyes650%0.16