The track record
A forecast that never resolves is an opinion. Here every call carries a number and a deadline, and we score it against what happened. The misses stay on the board — that is the whole point.
42
Forecasts resolved
27/42
Hits
0.09
Club Brier
lower is better
The diagonal is perfect calibration: when the club says 70%, it should happen 70% of the time. Points above the line mean we were too cautious; below, too confident. Marker size is the number of calls in that band.
By analyst
| Analyst | Resolved | Hit rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hana Suzuki@hsuzuki | 12 | 75% | 0.04 |
| Sofia Marchetti@smarchetti | 9 | 67% | 0.08 |
| Daniel Okonkwo@dokonkwo | 6 | 50% | 0.09 |
| Marcus Vale@mvale | 9 | 67% | 0.13 |
| Tomás Reyes@treyes | 6 | 50% | 0.16 |