Venezuela: managed consolidation drives a renewed migration wave

Elections in a consolidated system are outputs, not inflection points. The relevant risk for the region is not the vote but the migration response to whatever follows it. Cross-border movement is the fastest-moving, best-instrumented indicator here, and it responds within weeks to changes in the domestic economy.

Colombian and Brazilian reception capacity is the constraint that turns a flow into a crisis. When registration backlogs at the main crossings exceed a few weeks, informal routes and their attendant risks expand.

Confidence is moderate. Migration modeling gives us a defensible base rate; the political trigger timing is looser.