The globeEURASIA · UKR
Ukraine
Standing at critical. Escalation underway or imminent. 1 report on file; updated 4 Aug 2026.
SecurityEconomic
The call over time
- 11 Jul 2026CriticalUkraine: the grid, not the front line, is the decisive winter target
Expect a concentrated strike campaign on transmission — substations and autotransformers, not just generation — timed to the first sustained freeze. Repair stock, not air defense alone, is the binding constraint.
SOFIA MARCHETTI
Open forecasts
70%
Desk
Ukraine imposes nationwide scheduled load-shedding for 14+ consecutive days between 2026-11-15 and 2027-02-28.
RESOLVES BY 28 Feb 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
70%
Desk
Ukraine imposes nationwide scheduled load-shedding for 14+ consecutive days between 2026-11-15 and 2027-02-28.
RESOLVES BY 28 Feb 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
70%
Desk
Ukraine imposes nationwide scheduled load-shedding for 14+ consecutive days between 2026-11-15 and 2027-02-28.
RESOLVES BY 28 Feb 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
Indicators on the board
- TrippedDamaged high-voltage autotransformers exceed replacements 2:1
- ElevatedEmergency imports from ENTSO-E hit interconnector ceiling
- TrippedDamaged high-voltage autotransformers exceed replacements 2:1
- ElevatedEmergency imports from ENTSO-E hit interconnector ceiling
- TrippedDamaged high-voltage autotransformers exceed replacements 2:1
- ElevatedEmergency imports from ENTSO-E hit interconnector ceiling