Analyst

Sofia Marchetti

@smarchetti · Eurasia desk · Class of 2026

Eurasia desk. Reads front-line logistics and frozen-conflict corridors. Misses stay on the board.

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Published work(2)

Ukraine: the grid, not the front line, is the decisive winter target

Expect a concentrated strike campaign on transmission — substations and autotransformers, not just generation — timed to the first sustained freeze. Repair stock, not air defense alone, is the binding constraint.

By Sofia Marchetti11 Jul 2026

ARM · EURASIAElevated

South Caucasus: the transit-corridor dispute is the live fault line

The unresolved sovereignty terms of a Syunik transit corridor are the most likely trigger for renewed limited clashes — not a full war, but sub-brigade actions tied to negotiation leverage.

By Sofia Marchetti9 Jul 2026