South Caucasus: the transit-corridor dispute is the live fault line

A durable normalization is closer than at any point since the last war, which paradoxically raises short-term clash risk: the remaining disputed item — who controls and inspects a transit corridor — is exactly the kind of concrete, mappable issue that produces localized force.

The indicator that matters is engineering, not rhetoric: road and checkpoint construction near the disputed segment signals which side is trying to create facts on the ground.

Confidence is a genuine coin-toss. The corridor logic is sound, but whether it produces clashes or a deal inside the horizon is close to even.