ObservatoryAggie Geopolitics Club
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MENA · IRN

Iran

Standing at severe. Escalation likely inside the stated horizon. 1 report on file; updated 4 Aug 2026.

PoliticalSecurityRegulatory

The call over time

  1. 22 Jun 2026Severe
    Iran: enrichment expansion is a bargaining signal, not a breakout

    Expanded enrichment and reduced inspector access read as leverage-building ahead of talks, not a decision to weaponize. The tell would be a move at declared sites going dark simultaneously — that has not happened.

    MARCUS VALE

Open forecasts

90%
Desk

Iran does not test a nuclear device before 2027-06-30.

RESOLVES BY 30 Jun 2027
WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
90%
Desk

Iran does not test a nuclear device before 2027-06-30.

RESOLVES BY 30 Jun 2027
WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
90%
Desk

Iran does not test a nuclear device before 2027-06-30.

RESOLVES BY 30 Jun 2027
WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →

Indicators on the board

  • ArmedCorrelated monitoring loss across two or more declared sites
  • ElevatedEnrichment level reported above 60% U-235
  • ArmedCorrelated monitoring loss across two or more declared sites
  • ElevatedEnrichment level reported above 60% U-235
  • ArmedCorrelated monitoring loss across two or more declared sites
  • ElevatedEnrichment level reported above 60% U-235