The globeSUB-SAHARAN AFRICA · MLI
Mali
Standing at severe. Escalation likely inside the stated horizon. 1 report on file; updated 4 Aug 2026.
PoliticalSecurity
The call over time
- 29 Jun 2026SevereMali: private-military dependence deepens as the security economy inverts
State reliance on foreign contract forces is now structural, not tactical. It buys short-term regime security at the cost of long-term insurgent recruitment, and the trade is worsening.
DANIEL OKONKWO
Open forecasts
85%
Desk
Foreign contract forces remain deployed in Mali through 2027-03-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Mar 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
85%
Desk
Foreign contract forces remain deployed in Mali through 2027-03-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Mar 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
85%
Desk
Foreign contract forces remain deployed in Mali through 2027-03-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Mar 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
Indicators on the board
- ElevatedIncident centroid moves >100km from contractor basing over two quarters
- ArmedReported rural tax-collection by armed groups in new districts
- ElevatedIncident centroid moves >100km from contractor basing over two quarters
- ArmedReported rural tax-collection by armed groups in new districts
- ElevatedIncident centroid moves >100km from contractor basing over two quarters
- ArmedReported rural tax-collection by armed groups in new districts