Analyst

Daniel Okonkwo

@dokonkwo · Sub-Saharan Africa desk · Class of 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa desk. Coups, coup-proofing, and the security economics of the Sahel. Sources local reporting before wire copy.

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Published work(2)

SDN · SUB-SAHARAN AFRICACritical

Sudan: RSF consolidation in Darfur hardens into a de facto partition

The war is settling into a territorial split around the Kordofan line rather than resolving. A negotiated ceasefire is less likely than a frozen front with parallel administrations — which is worse for civilians and harder to reverse.

By Daniel Okonkwo6 Jul 2026

MLI · SUB-SAHARAN AFRICASevere

Mali: private-military dependence deepens as the security economy inverts

State reliance on foreign contract forces is now structural, not tactical. It buys short-term regime security at the cost of long-term insurgent recruitment, and the trade is worsening.

By Daniel Okonkwo29 Jun 2026