Sudan: RSF consolidation in Darfur hardens into a de facto partition

Front lines have moved less in the last two quarters than displacement has. That combination — static control, continuing displacement — is the signature of consolidation rather than stalemate. Each side is building the administrative scaffolding of a state within its zone: currency handling, customs at crossings, and taxation of aid convoys.

The humanitarian consequence leads the political one. Where crossings are taxed and convoys are rerouted, famine classification follows within a season. That is the indicator we weight most heavily because it is measured independently of either party's claims.

Confidence is moderately high. The control map is well-sourced; the judgment that partition hardens rather than reverses is the part we hold more loosely.