The globeSUB-SAHARAN AFRICA · SDN
Sudan
Standing at critical. Escalation underway or imminent. 1 report on file; updated 4 Aug 2026.
SecuritySocietal
The call over time
- 6 Jul 2026CriticalSudan: RSF consolidation in Darfur hardens into a de facto partition
The war is settling into a territorial split around the Kordofan line rather than resolving. A negotiated ceasefire is less likely than a frozen front with parallel administrations — which is worse for civilians and harder to reverse.
DANIEL OKONKWO
Open forecasts
75%
Desk
No nationwide ceasefire holds for 30+ consecutive days before 2027-01-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Jan 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
75%
Desk
No nationwide ceasefire holds for 30+ consecutive days before 2027-01-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Jan 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
75%
Desk
No nationwide ceasefire holds for 30+ consecutive days before 2027-01-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Jan 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
Indicators on the board
- TrippedIPC Phase 5 (famine) confirmed in one or more Darfur localities
- ElevatedParallel customs collection reported at two or more crossings
- TrippedIPC Phase 5 (famine) confirmed in one or more Darfur localities
- ElevatedParallel customs collection reported at two or more crossings
- TrippedIPC Phase 5 (famine) confirmed in one or more Darfur localities
- ElevatedParallel customs collection reported at two or more crossings