Taiwan

A PRC-declared 'customs inspection zone' short of a declared blockade is the most probable coercive move in the next two quarters. It stresses Taipei and allied resolve while staying below the threshold that forces a US military response.

Sustained median-line crossings have reset the baseline — what read as escalation in 2023 is now the floor. We step the assessment up a tier: each incursion now begins from a more forward posture, compressing warning time. Intent still reads as pressure, not preparation.

The tempo of PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan is high but stable. We read the current pattern as a normalized coercion baseline rather than the opening of an escalation. The drivers worth watching are administrative and economic, not kinetic.