The globeINDO-PACIFIC · PHL
Philippines
Standing at elevated. One or more drivers escalating; watch armed. 1 report on file; updated 4 Aug 2026.
PoliticalSecurity
The call over time
- 13 Jul 2026ElevatedSouth China Sea: resupply standoffs stay sub-lethal but trend up in frequency
Water-cannon and ramming incidents around Second Thomas Shoal continue and grow more frequent, but a deliberate lethal escalation remains unlikely because both capitals still want the incidents deniable.
HANA SUZUKI
Open forecasts
82%
Desk
No incident results in a confirmed fatality before 2027-01-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Jan 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
82%
Desk
No incident results in a confirmed fatality before 2027-01-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Jan 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
82%
Desk
No incident results in a confirmed fatality before 2027-01-31.
RESOLVES BY 31 Jan 2027WHERE DO YOU PUT IT?Log your own call →
Indicators on the board
- ElevatedMonthly logged incidents exceed the trailing 12-month mean by 50%
- ArmedNaval (not coast-guard) assets enter the immediate cordon
- ElevatedMonthly logged incidents exceed the trailing 12-month mean by 50%
- ArmedNaval (not coast-guard) assets enter the immediate cordon
- ElevatedMonthly logged incidents exceed the trailing 12-month mean by 50%
- ArmedNaval (not coast-guard) assets enter the immediate cordon